What You Need to Know About the Expiration of the New START Treaty and Its Global Implications

The New START treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, is set to expire on February 5, 2026. This impending expiration threatens to remove verifiable limits on the world’s largest nuclear arsenals, potentially igniting a new and dangerous arms race unseen since the Cold War era. Understanding what’s at stake, the history behind the treaty, and what could happen next is crucial for policymakers, security analysts, and global citizens alike.

What Is the New START Treaty?

The New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) was signed on April 8, 2010, in Prague by then-U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. It officially came into force on February 5, 2011. The treaty was designed to limit and monitor the nuclear weapons stockpiles of both nations, marking a significant step in arms control history.

Key Provisions of the Treaty

• Limitation of 1,550 deployed strategic warheads
• Cap of 700 deployed missiles and bombers
• Maximum of 800 launchers per side
• Verification measures, including inspections and data exchanges

Both the U.S. and Russia currently hold around 87% of the world’s nuclear weapons. The treaty aimed to maintain strategic stability, prevent an arms spiral, and enhance transparency.

Recent Developments and Challenges

Putin’s Suspension and the Gap in Arms Control

In February 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin suspended Russia’s participation in the treaty, mirroring U.S. reciprocity. This halted inspections and data exchanges but, notably, both countries continue to adhere to the numerical limits for now. Experts warn that this suspension undermines verification and could accelerate nuclear arms buildup.

Proposals and Warnings Ahead of Expiry

By September 2025, Putin proposed a one-year voluntary extension of the treaty limits, but the U.S. under President Biden showed no formal commitment. Former President Donald Trump called it a “good idea” but emphasized seeking a “better deal”, including China’s participation — which currently has no nuclear treaty limits.

The Risks of the Treaty Expiration

The looming expiration is generating fears of a nuclear arms race, with potential for rapid warhead uploads or new deployments as both Russia and the U.S. seek to maintain strategic superiority. Without verifiable limits, there’s a danger of doubling or even tripling nuclear stockpiles, increasing global instability.

Global Security Implications

• Unprecedented arms race among nuclear powers
• Reduced transparency increases miscalculation risks
• Potential collapse of historical arms control frameworks
• Heightened tensions amid U.S.-Russia conflicts
• Emergence of new nuclear threats from countries like China and Iran

What Can Be Done?

Diplomatic efforts are urgent. Some proposals include:

• Extending the current treaty temporarily to buy time
• Negotiating a new comprehensive arms control agreement inclusive of China and possibly other nuclear states
• Reinstating verification measures and inspection protocols
• Enhancing transparency through international monitoring

Notably, some experts suggest that a multi-party treaty involving China, India, Pakistan, and Iran could be crucial to global stability.

Historical Context and Future Outlook

The history of arms control dates back to the 1972 Nixon-Brezhnev accords, with subsequent treaties building a framework for nuclear stability. The current threat marks the potential end of over 50 years of bilateral control, raising fears of a new cold war scenario.

What Are Experts Saying?

Security analysts like Kingston Reif and Rose Gottemoeller warn that the **absence of verified limits** could lead to rapid nuclear proliferation and miscalculation. Politicians across the spectrum advocate for renewed diplomacy to prevent a catastrophic arms race.

FAQs About the New START Expiration

What happens if the New START treaty expires?

Exceeding the treaty limits could lead to an uncontrolled arms race, increasing the risk of nuclear escalation and reducing transparency between the U.S. and Russia.

Can the treaty be extended or renegotiated?

Yes, but both nations need to agree. Currently, diplomatic efforts are limited, and the expiration date is close.

What are the global consequences of no arms control treaty in place?

Without binding limits, nuclear powers may rapidly expand arsenals, and the risk of miscalculation or accidental conflict increases dramatically.

Will China or other countries join new arms control agreements?

China has not yet committed to nuclear treaties and continues expanding its ICBM capabilities. Broader inclusion in future agreements remains a challenge.

Conclusion: Why Acting Now Matters

The expiration of the New START treaty signals a critical juncture in international security. While both sides have maintained limits despite suspensions, the future of nuclear stability depends on renewed diplomacy and strategic foresight. Policymakers worldwide must prioritize negotiations to prevent a dangerous slide into unchecked nuclear proliferation, ensuring a safer future for all.

For more insights, stay informed through reputable sources like Politico or Chatham House.